Current State and NEXT_ACT

Snapshot: 2026-07-23 · HEAD: 84ddc766532e83e06ddd1ea0617c350b717c32d7 Branch: hierarchical-aif/motor-stack · Pushed to origin/hierarchical-aif/motor-stack. Science anchor is still e21747c (corrected B4 closure); commits on top of it are the OODA next-cycle plan (da89a41) and the D12 incident containment (7e9b22b…84ddc76) — governance, no P-level moved.

This file is the live state for the next session. Re-verify it on arrival — the commands in §1 re-establish it in under a minute. This snapshot describes a closed batch, not work in flight.

0. One-line status

H-AIF corrected B4 closure: COMPLETE (science anchor e21747c).
D12 incident containment: COMPLETE + pushed — leaked held-out mark identity redacted from
  distributable surfaces, d5_distribution_guard built, D5-safe successor archive round-trip-verified,
  remediation gate PASS. Incident stays NEGATIVE permanently; transmission principal-gated.
next gate: P4 transfer / P5 intervention discriminator — REQUIRES EXTERNAL DATA.
The binding constraint is now data, not model math.

1. Verify first (do not trust this file blindly)

cd UNI-FLAGELLUM
git log -1 --format='%H %s'                       # expect 84ddc76 … "D12 successor archive … gate PASS"
git status --short                                # expect CLEAN (nothing tracked pending)
diff -q hierarchical-aif/reports/frozen-evidence-baseline.sha256 \
        <(find audits/phase-c audits/phase-d -type f -print0 | sort -z | xargs -0 sha256sum)  # IDENTICAL
python -m pytest hierarchical-aif/tests/motor_stack_aif -q                 # 533 passed, 3 skipped, 1 xfailed
python hierarchical-aif/src/motor_stack_aif/claim_guard.py hierarchical-aif/reports hierarchical-aif/docs hierarchical-aif/ledgers hierarchical-aif/protocols hierarchical-aif/scripts hierarchical-aif/results   # 0 violations
python hierarchical-aif/src/motor_stack_aif/numeric_provenance_guard.py hierarchical-aif/reports hierarchical-aif/docs hierarchical-aif/ledgers hierarchical-aif/protocols   # 0 failures
python hierarchical-aif/src/motor_stack_aif/d5_distribution_guard.py hierarchical-aif/reports hierarchical-aif/protocols hierarchical-aif/ledgers hierarchical-aif/docs   # 0 findings (D12 distribution guard)

2. The corrected B4 package — CLOSED for this batch

All four corrected cells landed at full frozen N, 0 failures each, graded against committed predictions. Each hash verifies sha256sum -c OK.

Integrated reading: reports/B4C01-B4C11-INTEGRATED-CLOSURE.md; phase closure: reports/PHASE-HIERARCHICAL-AIF-CORRECTED-CLOSURE.md; one-row-per-cell index: reports/CORRECTED-CELL-RESULT-INDEX.md.

3. Defect closure state

7 CLOSED · 2 CLOSING · 3 QUARANTINED · 0 OPEN (D12 added this cycle). Ledger: ledgers/HIERARCHICAL-AIF-DEFECT-CLOSURE-LEDGER.md.

4. Scientific standing

No P-level was raised by this phase. P8 = FULL_PARITY = false. P4/P5/P7 are irreducibly external and cannot be closed by any modelling in this repository.

5. NEXT_ACT — the next move is OUTSIDE this repo

Do not mine the same Wadhwa duration data further. It has reached the limit of what it can fairly say; more analysis on it would create post-hoc structure, not stronger evidence. The next useful work is converting the plan into an external-data acquisition checklist and obtaining that data.

NEXT_ACT = convert protocols/NEXT-GATE-TRANSFER-AND-INTERVENTION-PLAN.md into an
           external-data ACQUISITION CHECKLIST, then acquire/design:

  1. an independent transfer cohort (single-motor dwell series, independent of Wadhwa 2022,
     enough independent MOTORS to beat the nesting-blindness C01 measured)
  2. a PRE-REGISTERED scoring rule committed BEFORE the data is touched (D9 discipline)
  3. adversaries kept alive: M2/lognormal, M4/M7 hierarchy, three-timescale kinetics,
     censoring artifact — a predeclared discriminator must be able to REMOVE one or more
  4. an intervention/perturbation path if G-side policy selection is to become testable
     (load / stator / PMF, recorded onset, paired pre/post on the same motors)
  5. treat mark-process evidence as TRANSFER-REQUIRED — D5/D6 quarantined the current channel

Method discipline that governs the next gate:

• Alternatives stay alive until a predeclared discriminator removes them (strong inference).
• The verdict is the bound/criterion set before the result, never a preferred interpretation after.
• Prospectivity is decided by the commit graph, not by prose (D9). Commit the prediction record before the run; flip PENDING → PROSPECTIVE only in the result commit.
• Nature can guide the motor-stack architecture but cannot move a UNI gate without build receipts.
• No rung rises without scoped evidence; negatives, partials, and bounds stay part of the record.

6. Standing reminders

• Pushed. hierarchical-aif/motor-stack is on origin at 84ddc76; e21747c remains the science anchor and is preserved unchanged (no amend/rebase/force-push).
• audits/phase-b/** (B3/B4 runners) and audits/phase-c|d/** (250 frozen files) are frozen, read-only. Never edit; any diff is a hard stop.
• The correction notice to the external reviewer is prepared, not sent; only the principal transmits it. Likewise the D5-safe successor archive (UNI-FLAGELLUM-haif-closure-8b93cf0-D5SAFE.zip, sha256 386f0e46…) is built and verified but not distributed — transmission is principal-gated.
• The withdrawn archive UNI-FLAGELLUM-haif-closure-e21747c.zip is WITHDRAWN_D5_UNSAFE; the D12 incident state is NEGATIVE and permanent (prior distribution cannot be recalled).
• Open, flagged for principal decision: public/wadhwa-2022-derived-events.json (served held-out dataset — exposure question, not acted on); status.py overrun-semantics PENDING (pre-P4); the user-owned dirty edit to this doc has now been reconciled and committed.
• Three mechanical guards run after every report batch: claim_guard (wording), numeric_provenance_guard (declared numbers), and d5_distribution_guard (held-out mark identity in distributables). All three are necessary, not sufficient.

NEXT_ACT = convert NEXT-GATE-TRANSFER-AND-INTERVENTION-PLAN.md into an external-data acquisition checklist