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Biological Parity Receipt Map
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Full biological parity is not a current status. It is the target world defined by these receipts.
The framing question for every lane is "What would make this lane true?" — never "why this lane
fails." Existing P0..P8 definitions in CLAUDE.md are authoritative and unchanged.
LANE A — duration-only B3/B4 evidence
| current receipts | B3 result 5d7a0589… (9 models × 2 cohorts × 2 rules, 36 cells); held-out motor-equal NLPD on the frozen sha256_mod5 split; 44/44 independent oracle; preflight 46/46; determinism byte-identical |
| current status | STANDS. Retained adverse result: M2 lognormal out-predicts the M3 two-timescale mixture on held-out data. All 8 motor-equal M3 contrasts INCONCLUSIVE at 19 holdout motors |
| next receipt | C02 and C10 have landed; C11 running, C01 queued. B4C02 shows the adverse M2-over-M3 pattern is generator-specific, not a generic heavy-tail artifact — so "it is just shape" is no longer an adequate account of the retained adverse result. No mechanism is established by this. Next: C11, C01 |
| falsifier | an adversarial baseline survives or wins under corrected CI-bound tests |
| maps to | P3 held-out predictive (duration-only scope) |
LANE B — corrected robustness
| current receipts | C03–C08 executed; D1 bootstrap repaired + tested; D3 stable seeding repaired + tested; resource costs re-measured; B4C10 LANDED at full frozen N_boot=2000 (959a00e9…, 8372.7 s, 1994/2000 completed, U2/U3/U4 all OK) on the byte-identical frozen runner; B4C02 LANDED at full frozen N=200/generator (0633988d…, 8.17 h, 600/600 sims, 0 failures, ELIGIBLE_FOR_FROZEN_VERDICT) |
| current status | IN PROGRESS. C10 complete; C02 complete (GENERATOR-SPECIFIC, frozen prediction GENERATOR-ROBUST_ADVERSE REFUTED at full N — the adverse M2-over-M3 result is not generic to heavy-tailed shape); C11 running; C01 queued. C11 U4 remains withdrawn pending its corrected run — B4C10's favourable result may not be transferred to C11 (M4 pooled-i.i.d. vs M7 motor-grouped; different likelihood structure) |
| next receipt | the two remaining corrected full-N results (C11 running, C01 queued), each hashed, with old-vs-new status tables |
| falsifier | corrected cells fail, or remain inconclusive at full N |
| maps to | P3, P6 per cell |
LANE C — mark process
| current receipts | schema carries nextStateN/direction/jump; B3 never reads them; D6 quarantine policies implemented and tested |
| current status | QUARANTINED. Holdout mark channel burned (D5) → retrospective-only on this dataset. Closed-chain modelling blocked by D6: 2 impossible marks, 5 zero-support holdout cells, 15–17% of marks leave {1..8} |
| next receipt | raw-archive re-derivation of the 2 impossible marks and an independent prospective mark dataset with a predeclared smoothing/quarantine policy |
| falsifier | impossible marks persist unresolved; smoothing constant controls the outcome (it currently flips the sign); transfer fails |
| maps to | P2 (mark fields), P6; prospective route now runs through P4/P7 |
LANE D — motor-stack AIF
| current receipts | constrained F-side model built: 2 free params, per-motor latents integrated by quadrature, censoring-correct hazard/survival, no floor, motor-equal scoring, motor-resampling bootstrap; 385 tests pass. SCORED 2026-07-22 — F_SIDE_MOTOR_STACK_SCORING_RESULT.json sha256 b3b12720…, determinism proven byte-identical over two full executions, independent-oracle check PASS with residual exactly 0.0 against three frozen models (M3, M0, M8) |
| current status | BUILT AND SCORED. Verdict NOT_ESTABLISHED against CONTROL_CURRENT (M3) and against every serious adversary (M2, M8, M1); RESOLVED_ABOVE only against the two weakest (M0, M5). The F-side model reproduces the frozen M7_HIERARCHICAL_MOTOR to 2.5e-7 nats — at this resolution it is a re-derivation of the incumbent, not an advance on it. The hierarchy buys nothing measurable over its own tau → 0 limit M1_WEIBULL (contrast +0.000615, half-width 0.0111). G-side fenced: DESIGN_ONLY_UNTIL_INTERVENTION_OR_TRANSFER |
| retained adverse | M2_LOGNORMAL (3.4093) and M8_EMPIRICAL_KDE (3.4225) both out-predict the F-side motor stack (3.4327) on point estimate. Both intervals cross 0, so this is NOT_ESTABLISHED — not a refutation and equally not a defence. The standing lognormal adverse finding is extended, not overturned |
| next receipt | per-motor arrays for M4/M6/M7 DELIVERED 2026-07-22 (751a59ef...): all three re-derived at exact zero oracle residual; neither M4 nor M6 resolves against the candidate; M7 exposed D10 (no minimum-effect-size guard). Candidate ranks 5th of 10. Remaining: more independent motors; a model that beats its own tau → 0 limit; censored observations to exercise the unexercised censoring branch |
| falsifier | an adversary's contrast interval lies entirely below 0. Not observed — so H_FSIDE_DURATION is not falsified, and equally not supported, against the serious competitors |
| maps to | P1 on implementation (strengthened: exact-zero oracle residual + proven determinism); P3 duration-only scope — unchanged, B3 stands. No P-level raised |
The G-side requirement, stated concretely
G needs policies over actions; this dataset has none — the action set is empty, which is
structural, not sample-size-limited. To make G a biological motor claim requires all three:
(1) a manipulated variable with recorded onset time, (2) paired pre/post observation on the same
motors, (3) enough independent motors per condition for a CI-bound verdict. Until then G is used
only at ORCHESTRATE level to choose the next experiment.
LANE E — full biological parity
| current receipts | P0 H-AIF-G1 established; P1 corrected implementations tested; P3 duration-only B3 stands |
| current status | FULL_PARITY = false. P8 is conjunctive; P4 transfer is the first unsatisfied level |
| next receipt | P0–P7 conjunctively supported |
| falsifier | any required level remains NOT_ESTABLISHED |
Per-level status
| level | status | missing receipt |
|---|---|---|
P0 computational integrity |
holds | maintain frozen baseline; correct D7 width reporting |
P1 equation / implementation |
repaired in new namespace | F-side scoring; corrected runs complete |
P2 observational |
limited | raw MAT archive absent (BLOCKED_EXTERNAL); D6 unresolved for mark fields |
P3 held-out predictive |
stands, duration-only | corrected B4 results; F-side scored comparison |
P4 transfer |
NOT_ESTABLISHED |
an independent dataset with a predeclared split — cannot be closed by modelling |
P5 intervention |
NOT_ESTABLISHED |
wet-lab perturbation with recorded response — cannot be closed by modelling |
P6 structural / mechanistic |
scoped: C11 U4 withdrawn pending rerun; mark-mechanism retrospective-only; duration-only unchanged | corrected C11; a mechanism discriminator; independent mark data |
P7 independent replication |
NOT_ESTABLISHED |
a second lab/dataset — cannot be closed by modelling |
P8 full verdict |
false | all of the above |
P4, P5, and P7 cannot be closed by any amount of modelling, code, or analysis in this
repository. They require data this project does not have. Saying so plainly is not defeatism; it
is what makes the levels that are movable worth moving.
Strongest claim currently licensed
On a single 19-motor E. coli cohort (Wadhwa 2022), under a frozen
sha256_mod5split and motor-equal NLPD/CRPS scoring, a simple lognormal dwell model out-predicts the two-timescale mixture on held-out data, and every motor-equal contrast against the reference mechanism is inconclusive at this sample size. No mechanism, transfer, intervention, or parity claim is supported.
Standing frame
Nature supplies the architecture candidate. The gate supplies the status.
Full biological parity is not a current status. It is the target world defined by these receipts.
sha256 3d812461303c6dd3 — of the original file, so what was ingested stays checkable.