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Biological Parity Receipt Map

Hierarchical Active Inference · hierarchical-aif/docs/BIOLOGICAL-PARITY-RECEIPT-MAP.md @ b909801f3db4 (hierarchical-aif/motor-stack) — opens the published snapshot 8b4b5935bcba

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Full biological parity is not a current status. It is the target world defined by these receipts.

The framing question for every lane is "What would make this lane true?" — never "why this lane fails." Existing P0..P8 definitions in CLAUDE.md are authoritative and unchanged.


LANE A — duration-only B3/B4 evidence

current receipts B3 result 5d7a0589… (9 models × 2 cohorts × 2 rules, 36 cells); held-out motor-equal NLPD on the frozen sha256_mod5 split; 44/44 independent oracle; preflight 46/46; determinism byte-identical
current status STANDS. Retained adverse result: M2 lognormal out-predicts the M3 two-timescale mixture on held-out data. All 8 motor-equal M3 contrasts INCONCLUSIVE at 19 holdout motors
next receipt C02 and C10 have landed; C11 running, C01 queued. B4C02 shows the adverse M2-over-M3 pattern is generator-specific, not a generic heavy-tail artifact — so "it is just shape" is no longer an adequate account of the retained adverse result. No mechanism is established by this. Next: C11, C01
falsifier an adversarial baseline survives or wins under corrected CI-bound tests
maps to P3 held-out predictive (duration-only scope)

LANE B — corrected robustness

current receipts C03–C08 executed; D1 bootstrap repaired + tested; D3 stable seeding repaired + tested; resource costs re-measured; B4C10 LANDED at full frozen N_boot=2000 (959a00e9…, 8372.7 s, 1994/2000 completed, U2/U3/U4 all OK) on the byte-identical frozen runner; B4C02 LANDED at full frozen N=200/generator (0633988d…, 8.17 h, 600/600 sims, 0 failures, ELIGIBLE_FOR_FROZEN_VERDICT)
current status IN PROGRESS. C10 complete; C02 complete (GENERATOR-SPECIFIC, frozen prediction GENERATOR-ROBUST_ADVERSE REFUTED at full N — the adverse M2-over-M3 result is not generic to heavy-tailed shape); C11 running; C01 queued. C11 U4 remains withdrawn pending its corrected run — B4C10's favourable result may not be transferred to C11 (M4 pooled-i.i.d. vs M7 motor-grouped; different likelihood structure)
next receipt the two remaining corrected full-N results (C11 running, C01 queued), each hashed, with old-vs-new status tables
falsifier corrected cells fail, or remain inconclusive at full N
maps to P3, P6 per cell

LANE C — mark process

current receipts schema carries nextStateN/direction/jump; B3 never reads them; D6 quarantine policies implemented and tested
current status QUARANTINED. Holdout mark channel burned (D5) → retrospective-only on this dataset. Closed-chain modelling blocked by D6: 2 impossible marks, 5 zero-support holdout cells, 15–17% of marks leave {1..8}
next receipt raw-archive re-derivation of the 2 impossible marks and an independent prospective mark dataset with a predeclared smoothing/quarantine policy
falsifier impossible marks persist unresolved; smoothing constant controls the outcome (it currently flips the sign); transfer fails
maps to P2 (mark fields), P6; prospective route now runs through P4/P7

LANE D — motor-stack AIF

current receipts constrained F-side model built: 2 free params, per-motor latents integrated by quadrature, censoring-correct hazard/survival, no floor, motor-equal scoring, motor-resampling bootstrap; 385 tests pass. SCORED 2026-07-22F_SIDE_MOTOR_STACK_SCORING_RESULT.json sha256 b3b12720…, determinism proven byte-identical over two full executions, independent-oracle check PASS with residual exactly 0.0 against three frozen models (M3, M0, M8)
current status BUILT AND SCORED. Verdict NOT_ESTABLISHED against CONTROL_CURRENT (M3) and against every serious adversary (M2, M8, M1); RESOLVED_ABOVE only against the two weakest (M0, M5). The F-side model reproduces the frozen M7_HIERARCHICAL_MOTOR to 2.5e-7 nats — at this resolution it is a re-derivation of the incumbent, not an advance on it. The hierarchy buys nothing measurable over its own tau → 0 limit M1_WEIBULL (contrast +0.000615, half-width 0.0111). G-side fenced: DESIGN_ONLY_UNTIL_INTERVENTION_OR_TRANSFER
retained adverse M2_LOGNORMAL (3.4093) and M8_EMPIRICAL_KDE (3.4225) both out-predict the F-side motor stack (3.4327) on point estimate. Both intervals cross 0, so this is NOT_ESTABLISHEDnot a refutation and equally not a defence. The standing lognormal adverse finding is extended, not overturned
next receipt per-motor arrays for M4/M6/M7 DELIVERED 2026-07-22 (751a59ef...): all three re-derived at exact zero oracle residual; neither M4 nor M6 resolves against the candidate; M7 exposed D10 (no minimum-effect-size guard). Candidate ranks 5th of 10. Remaining: more independent motors; a model that beats its own tau → 0 limit; censored observations to exercise the unexercised censoring branch
falsifier an adversary's contrast interval lies entirely below 0. Not observed — so H_FSIDE_DURATION is not falsified, and equally not supported, against the serious competitors
maps to P1 on implementation (strengthened: exact-zero oracle residual + proven determinism); P3 duration-only scope — unchanged, B3 stands. No P-level raised

The G-side requirement, stated concretely

G needs policies over actions; this dataset has none — the action set is empty, which is structural, not sample-size-limited. To make G a biological motor claim requires all three: (1) a manipulated variable with recorded onset time, (2) paired pre/post observation on the same motors, (3) enough independent motors per condition for a CI-bound verdict. Until then G is used only at ORCHESTRATE level to choose the next experiment.

LANE E — full biological parity

current receipts P0 H-AIF-G1 established; P1 corrected implementations tested; P3 duration-only B3 stands
current status FULL_PARITY = false. P8 is conjunctive; P4 transfer is the first unsatisfied level
next receipt P0P7 conjunctively supported
falsifier any required level remains NOT_ESTABLISHED

Per-level status

level status missing receipt
P0 computational integrity holds maintain frozen baseline; correct D7 width reporting
P1 equation / implementation repaired in new namespace F-side scoring; corrected runs complete
P2 observational limited raw MAT archive absent (BLOCKED_EXTERNAL); D6 unresolved for mark fields
P3 held-out predictive stands, duration-only corrected B4 results; F-side scored comparison
P4 transfer NOT_ESTABLISHED an independent dataset with a predeclared split — cannot be closed by modelling
P5 intervention NOT_ESTABLISHED wet-lab perturbation with recorded response — cannot be closed by modelling
P6 structural / mechanistic scoped: C11 U4 withdrawn pending rerun; mark-mechanism retrospective-only; duration-only unchanged corrected C11; a mechanism discriminator; independent mark data
P7 independent replication NOT_ESTABLISHED a second lab/dataset — cannot be closed by modelling
P8 full verdict false all of the above

P4, P5, and P7 cannot be closed by any amount of modelling, code, or analysis in this repository. They require data this project does not have. Saying so plainly is not defeatism; it is what makes the levels that are movable worth moving.

Strongest claim currently licensed

On a single 19-motor E. coli cohort (Wadhwa 2022), under a frozen sha256_mod5 split and motor-equal NLPD/CRPS scoring, a simple lognormal dwell model out-predicts the two-timescale mixture on held-out data, and every motor-equal contrast against the reference mechanism is inconclusive at this sample size. No mechanism, transfer, intervention, or parity claim is supported.

Standing frame

Nature supplies the architecture candidate. The gate supplies the status.
Full biological parity is not a current status. It is the target world defined by these receipts.

sha256 3d812461303c6dd3 — of the original file, so what was ingested stays checkable.