UNI Universal Natural Intelligence

Wiki · Hierarchical Active Inference

Negatives and Partials — preserved, never absorbed

Hierarchical Active Inference · hierarchical-aif/ledgers/HIERARCHICAL-AIF-NEGATIVES-AND-PARTIALS.md @ b909801f3db4 (hierarchical-aif/motor-stack) — opens the published snapshot 8b4b5935bcba

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Adverse results, refuted predictions, partial runs, not-run cells, and blocked externals. These are first-class evidence. They are reported alongside every later result, never instead of one.


1. Retained adverse results

id result status
ADVERSE-LOGNORMAL A simple lognormal (M2) out-predicts the two-timescale UNI mixture (M3) on held-out data under motor-equal NLPD, in both cohorts. Event-pooled gap 0.03687 / 0.03872 reproduces B2. RETAINED — HEADLINE. Not superseded by any later work. Predictive superiority is never promoted to mechanism.
ALL-CONTRASTS-INCONCLUSIVE All 8 motor-equal M3 contrasts are INCONCLUSIVE at 19 holdout motors. B4C04 shows this is seed-stable across 5 seeds × 2 replicate counts × 2 rules × 2 cohorts. RETAINED. A sample property, not a seed artifact. Underpowered is not equivalence.
RULE-DISAGREEMENT M2 ranks first under NLPD and near-last under CRPS-seconds. RETAINED. Scoring-rule dependence is real.
M7-MEAN-ONE-FRAGILITY The frozen M7 uniform-grid mean-one trapezoid mis-integrates the near-zero y^(a-1) singularity (0.9999942). The property holds exactly (analytic weight sum 1 to 1e-15). RECORDED VERBATIM. Tolerance not loosened.

2. Refuted frozen predictions (B4)

cell prediction observed outcome
B4C03 STABLE M8 rank 2→3 at +1 bandwidth grid step REFUTED
B4C06 BOUNDARY-STABLE top-3 reorders under drop-longest REFUTED
B4C08 LOMO-STABLE 2 non-primary contrasts flip under single-motor removal REFUTED
B4C10 UNIDENTIFIED_OR_WEAK U2/U3/U4 all OK at 100/2000 REFUTED_PARTIAL — being re-run at full N
B4C11 PROFILE_FLAT_OR_WEAK U2 OK (full contract); U4 OK at 30/2000 REFUTED_U4_PARTIAL → U4 WITHDRAWN (D1)

A refuted prediction closes as refuted and stays visible.

3. Withdrawn claims

claim reason route back
B4C11 U4_OK; τ CI [0.17658, 0.27020] D1 cluster-collapse bootstrap: 80 draws → 46 groups corrected C11 full N=2000
RESOURCE_BOUND justifications for C01/C02/C10/C11 D2: overstated 17–29× vs measured reclassification issued; runs scheduled
Track D resolution floor ≈0.064 nats wrong narrowest contrast (M2 vs actual M4) + D7 corrected floor ≈0.042 nats

4. Not run / blocked

item status why
B4C01, B4C02, B4C09 (original) NOT_RUN historical recorded RESOURCE_BOUND; justification since withdrawn (D2). C02 now running; C01 queued; C09 still NOT_RUN
B4C06 analysisStartIndex ∈ {3400, 3600} BLOCKED_EXTERNAL raw MAT archive absent
Leave-one-study-out, leave-one-condition-out NOT_RUN by construction single study; no separable condition label
Raw archive re-derivation NOT_LOCATED_RAW_ARCHIVE data/remodeling_data.mat absent
P4 transfer, P7 replication NOT_ESTABLISHED no independent dataset — not closable by modelling
P5 intervention NOT_ESTABLISHED no perturbation data — not closable by modelling
G-side biological policy selection DESIGN_ONLY_UNTIL_INTERVENTION passive dataset; action set structurally empty
Prospective mark-process claims RETROSPECTIVE_ONLY D5 — holdout mark channel burned

5. Self-inflicted process negatives

Recorded because a laboratory that hides its own procedural failures cannot be trusted with its scientific ones.

id what cost
D5 A subagent brief with no split boundary caused a read of the held-out mark channel Permanent within this dataset. Mitigated only by the channel having had little resolving power (contrast NOT_ESTABLISHED, sign flips with the smoothing constant)
Claim-guard self-reference Guard scanned its own phrase dictionary (19 false hits); then its own FAIL report (124) Fixed via documented exclusions
Claim-guard cross-line masking A "forbidden" on a previous line masked a real claim on the next Fixed: negation must be same-line. Would have passed a genuine parity claim under a forbidden-wording table
Test conflated "small" with "unresolvable" A uniform paired offset is genuinely resolvable; the test asserted otherwise Split into two tests; distinction documented
TDD ordering not strictly red-then-green D1/D3 corrected paths were authored with their tests Disclosed in H-AIF-G4-RUNNER-FIX-REPORT.md §5 rather than presented as compliance

6. Carried Phase-1 limitations (must reach the final ledger)

  • D1 honest headline is 20/23 credited, not 22/23. AC4 FAILS.
  • D1A10B_LATTICE_SINGLE_BOND_DOUBLE_COUNTED: real detection, no strict prospective ancestry → prospective status NOT_ESTABLISHED.
  • Live stator integrality remains NOT_ESTABLISHED.
  • Mojibake in three Unicode diagnostic regexes in the corrected D1 runner (do not use it to create new evidence).
  • package-manifest-addendum-v2.json scope limitation (lists 6 artifacts, not itself).

7. Repository-level verdicts (unchanged, not authored by this program)

cross-study X16_FULL_BIOLOGICAL_PARITY = FAIL
  X06, X11 FAIL; X10, X12 NOT_ESTABLISHED; X13, X14, X15 BLOCKED_EXTERNAL; X01-05, X07-09 PASS
science-gates overall = PARTIAL_PARITY_ONLY  (G03, G05, G06 FAIL)
observed-experiment H1/H2 SUPPORTED_WITHIN_PROTOCOL; H4 INCONCLUSIVE

Gates move only by real evidence, never by relabeling.

sha256 d1e52519a00bae8a — of the original file, so what was ingested stays checkable.