Wiki · Hierarchical Active Inference
Negatives and Partials — preserved, never absorbed
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Adverse results, refuted predictions, partial runs, not-run cells, and blocked externals. These are first-class evidence. They are reported alongside every later result, never instead of one.
1. Retained adverse results
| id | result | status |
|---|---|---|
| ADVERSE-LOGNORMAL | A simple lognormal (M2) out-predicts the two-timescale UNI mixture (M3) on held-out data under motor-equal NLPD, in both cohorts. Event-pooled gap 0.03687 / 0.03872 reproduces B2. | RETAINED — HEADLINE. Not superseded by any later work. Predictive superiority is never promoted to mechanism. |
| ALL-CONTRASTS-INCONCLUSIVE | All 8 motor-equal M3 contrasts are INCONCLUSIVE at 19 holdout motors. B4C04 shows this is seed-stable across 5 seeds × 2 replicate counts × 2 rules × 2 cohorts. |
RETAINED. A sample property, not a seed artifact. Underpowered is not equivalence. |
| RULE-DISAGREEMENT | M2 ranks first under NLPD and near-last under CRPS-seconds. | RETAINED. Scoring-rule dependence is real. |
| M7-MEAN-ONE-FRAGILITY | The frozen M7 uniform-grid mean-one trapezoid mis-integrates the near-zero y^(a-1) singularity (0.9999942). The property holds exactly (analytic weight sum 1 to 1e-15). |
RECORDED VERBATIM. Tolerance not loosened. |
2. Refuted frozen predictions (B4)
| cell | prediction | observed | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| B4C03 | STABLE | M8 rank 2→3 at +1 bandwidth grid step | REFUTED |
| B4C06 | BOUNDARY-STABLE | top-3 reorders under drop-longest | REFUTED |
| B4C08 | LOMO-STABLE | 2 non-primary contrasts flip under single-motor removal | REFUTED |
| B4C10 | UNIDENTIFIED_OR_WEAK | U2/U3/U4 all OK at 100/2000 | REFUTED_PARTIAL — being re-run at full N |
| B4C11 | PROFILE_FLAT_OR_WEAK | U2 OK (full contract); U4 OK at 30/2000 | REFUTED_U4_PARTIAL → U4 WITHDRAWN (D1) |
A refuted prediction closes as refuted and stays visible.
3. Withdrawn claims
| claim | reason | route back |
|---|---|---|
B4C11 U4_OK; τ CI [0.17658, 0.27020] |
D1 cluster-collapse bootstrap: 80 draws → 46 groups | corrected C11 full N=2000 |
RESOURCE_BOUND justifications for C01/C02/C10/C11 |
D2: overstated 17–29× vs measured | reclassification issued; runs scheduled |
| Track D resolution floor ≈0.064 nats | wrong narrowest contrast (M2 vs actual M4) + D7 | corrected floor ≈0.042 nats |
4. Not run / blocked
| item | status | why |
|---|---|---|
| B4C01, B4C02, B4C09 (original) | NOT_RUN historical |
recorded RESOURCE_BOUND; justification since withdrawn (D2). C02 now running; C01 queued; C09 still NOT_RUN |
B4C06 analysisStartIndex ∈ {3400, 3600} |
BLOCKED_EXTERNAL |
raw MAT archive absent |
| Leave-one-study-out, leave-one-condition-out | NOT_RUN by construction |
single study; no separable condition label |
| Raw archive re-derivation | NOT_LOCATED_RAW_ARCHIVE |
data/remodeling_data.mat absent |
P4 transfer, P7 replication |
NOT_ESTABLISHED |
no independent dataset — not closable by modelling |
P5 intervention |
NOT_ESTABLISHED |
no perturbation data — not closable by modelling |
| G-side biological policy selection | DESIGN_ONLY_UNTIL_INTERVENTION |
passive dataset; action set structurally empty |
| Prospective mark-process claims | RETROSPECTIVE_ONLY |
D5 — holdout mark channel burned |
5. Self-inflicted process negatives
Recorded because a laboratory that hides its own procedural failures cannot be trusted with its scientific ones.
| id | what | cost |
|---|---|---|
| D5 | A subagent brief with no split boundary caused a read of the held-out mark channel | Permanent within this dataset. Mitigated only by the channel having had little resolving power (contrast NOT_ESTABLISHED, sign flips with the smoothing constant) |
| Claim-guard self-reference | Guard scanned its own phrase dictionary (19 false hits); then its own FAIL report (124) | Fixed via documented exclusions |
| Claim-guard cross-line masking | A "forbidden" on a previous line masked a real claim on the next |
Fixed: negation must be same-line. Would have passed a genuine parity claim under a forbidden-wording table |
| Test conflated "small" with "unresolvable" | A uniform paired offset is genuinely resolvable; the test asserted otherwise | Split into two tests; distinction documented |
| TDD ordering not strictly red-then-green | D1/D3 corrected paths were authored with their tests | Disclosed in H-AIF-G4-RUNNER-FIX-REPORT.md §5 rather than presented as compliance |
6. Carried Phase-1 limitations (must reach the final ledger)
- D1 honest headline is 20/23 credited, not 22/23. AC4 FAILS.
D1A10B_LATTICE_SINGLE_BOND_DOUBLE_COUNTED: real detection, no strict prospective ancestry → prospective statusNOT_ESTABLISHED.- Live stator integrality remains
NOT_ESTABLISHED. - Mojibake in three Unicode diagnostic regexes in the corrected D1 runner (do not use it to create new evidence).
package-manifest-addendum-v2.jsonscope limitation (lists 6 artifacts, not itself).
7. Repository-level verdicts (unchanged, not authored by this program)
cross-study X16_FULL_BIOLOGICAL_PARITY = FAIL
X06, X11 FAIL; X10, X12 NOT_ESTABLISHED; X13, X14, X15 BLOCKED_EXTERNAL; X01-05, X07-09 PASS
science-gates overall = PARTIAL_PARITY_ONLY (G03, G05, G06 FAIL)
observed-experiment H1/H2 SUPPORTED_WITHIN_PROTOCOL; H4 INCONCLUSIVE
Gates move only by real evidence, never by relabeling.
sha256 d1e52519a00bae8a — of the original file, so what was ingested stays checkable.